The world’s richest person—entrepreneur and Tesla CEO Elon Musk—has made some wild predictions and promises over the years. Yet despite the absurdity of many of Mr. Musk’s claims, people tend to react (sometimes impulsively) when he tweets a forecast.
Remember back in 2019 when people rushed out to purchase Dogecoin cryptocurrency after Musk tweeted “Dogecoin rulz”?
Yeah, Musk makes some wild claims that often get equally wild responses. Now that he has agreed to purchase the social media platform Twitter for $44 billion, you can expect many more bold forecasts in the future.
From space odysseys and merch gimmicks to the future of the automotive industry, let’s look back at Musk’s wildest predictions and promises to date—both those that have come true and those that have not.
Even though Musk’s forecasts have been right on several occasions, even more of his predictions have not come true. Here are some of the most memorable misjudgments he has made.
In 2016, Musk revealed his far-out plan to colonize Mars. He also suggested there was a 70% chance that he would move to Mars—a prophecy that many of his adversaries hoped would come true.
Then earlier this year, Musk put hypothetical dates on civilization’s move to the red planet, speculating that colonization could start by 2029 and a million people could live there by 2060.
But much to the disappointment of Musk haters everywhere, the billionaire has yet to pack his bags and move to Mars. No one else is catching a space-bound flight there, either.
It seems only fitting that an eccentric tech entrepreneur like Musk would want to create a humanoid robot. So, no one was particularly surprised when he used a dancing human in a robot suit to announce his plans for such a venture back in 2021.
The bot was supposed to be a friendly humanoid—named either the Tesla Bot or Optimus—capable of taking over boring or dangerous tasks for humans.
Musk said the robot would likely be available by 2023. So far, though, the plan has not advanced beyond the robot-suit-guy getting down on the dance floor.
If it seems like Musk has been touting the Tesla Cyber truck for years, it’s because he has. In 2019, he revealed plans to have the ultra-futuristic pickup in production by 2021 and available by 2022.
Now, however, the plan has changed (no surprise there), with Musk saying production will begin in 2023, though he doesn’t have an exact date for the kickoff. Instead, he said on a call with investors that the timeline for the production version was “hopefully next year.”
Everyone hates traffic, including Elon Musk. Because he’s rich enough to do almost anything he wants, including trying to reduce traffic, he founded the Boring Company to start digging underground commuter tunnels. The tunnels, Musk theorized, would transport people via pods inside high-pressure tubes at speeds of up to 760 miles per hour.
Musk first proposed the hyperloop in 2013, but at this point, the project hasn’t gotten far. Aside from building a test facility in California, the Boring Company has only managed to create a single 1.7-mile tunnel in Las Vegas—and it isn’t shuttling people in futuristic pods at nearly the speed of sound. Instead, the corridor is used to ferry tourists to three different locations in a normal Tesla car.
But there’s news that Musk and the Boring Company might be trying to revive the project. On April 25, 2022, the Boring Company announced that full-scale testing of the Hyperloop would begin this year. Whether that actually happens is anyone’s guess, of course.
Although Elon Musk makes a lot of off-the-wall predictions that never materialize, he’s also spot-on sometimes. Here are a few instances where he got it right.
Musk might not have made it to Mars yet, but the SpaceX company, which he established with hopes of getting there, has been successful in other ways. Founded in 2002, SpaceX is the first private company to have launched a spacecraft into orbit successfully. The company set another record in 2020 when it sent two astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS).
At the time of writing, SpaceX was the only private spaceflight company capable of sending people into space.
In 2017, Musk tweeted that “After [we sell] 50k [Boring Company] hats, we will start selling The Boring Company flamethrower.” Once the hat quota had been reached, another tweet was sent saying the flamethrowers were coming soon.
Naturally, everyone brushed the flamethrowers off as one of Musk’s gimmicks—until the devices started to arrive. Each flamethrower had to be labeled as “not a flamethrower” during transport to meet the laws that prohibit shipping hazardous items. But regardless of what Musk called the devices, they were definitely flamethrowers that used propane to shoot flames several feet into the air.
Musk’s Boring Company sold 20,000 “not a flamethrowers” to the public before discontinuing the project.
Back in 2019, Musk predicted that, by now, drivers would be able to take a nap behind the wheel while hurtling down the freeway. While that certainly isn’t true, Tesla’s Autopilot system does indeed bring a level of autonomy to vehicles so equipped.
Tesla models with AutoPilot can steer, accelerate, and brake automatically under certain conditions. But according to the company’s website, “Current Autopilot features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous.”
Still, the technology is quite impressive in its own right. There are six levels of autonomy (starting at zero) as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). Tesla’s Autopilot—along with some other systems, such as General Motors’ Super Cruise—are considered Level 2, which is the highest level of autonomy currently available in a production vehicle.
When Tesla launched the Roadster in 2008, the brand’s cars—and the overall concept of electric vehicles (EVs)—were criticized for being nothing more than “toys for rich people.” But in an interview at the time, Musk pointed out that the high initial cost of the Roadster, which was priced at $109,000, was necessary to develop more affordable vehicles in the future.
And he was right. Tesla now sells the Model 3, which is priced at under $50,000. What’s more, there are now many affordable EVs from other automakers. Take, for example, the Nissan Leaf (starting at $28,365), the Chevrolet Volt (starting at $31,995), and the Mazda MX-30 (starting at $34,645).
With more and more EVs hitting the road each year, there will undoubtedly be more entry-level offerings, making one more of Musk’s predictions a reality.
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