Automotive technology is getting to be more advanced all the time. Innovations, such as electric vehicles and autonomous systems, are becoming more commonplace every year.
And all that advanced technology makes it clear that the manual transmission—a simplistic mechanical device—will soon be obsolete. Even though enthusiasts often weep at the thought of the manual gearbox going the way of the carburetor, the end is undoubtedly near.
The manual transmission has been dying a slow death for decades—and today’s cutting-edge technology will be the proverbial nail in the coffin. You can expect stick-shift vehicles to disappear from the United States in the next decade or so, and here’s why.
Last year, sales of all-electric and hybrid vehicles nearly doubled in the United States, from 300,000 in 2020 to more than 600,000 in 2021. Most experts expect there to be more electric vehicles (EVs) on the road each year.
Although there are a couple of exceptions to the rule, most current EVs do not have a traditional multi-speed manual or automatic transmission. Instead, EVs typically have a single-ratio drive unit.
Electric motors have a much wider powerband than internal combustion engines. Therefore, the motors can usually produce acceptable performance without multiple gears.
Ditching the conventional transmission saves on production costs, making EVs more affordable.
Manual transmissions also don’t work in many hybrid vehicles. A lot of hybrids house their electric motors in the transmission, along with a planetary gearset that acts as a power-split device. The transmission is usually referred to as an electronically variable transmission (e-CVT).
Over the years, only a few hybrids (all of which were Hondas) were offered in the United States with a manual transmission. The cars had a powertrain layout that sandwiched a single motor between the engine and transmission, making a manual gearbox possible. But because the setup doesn’t allow the vehicle to run on electric power alone, it’s not as efficient as using an e-CVT.
Today, there aren’t any new hybrid vehicles offered with a manual transmission.
On March 31, 2022, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) finalized the updated corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. The new regulations require an industry-wide fleet average of approximately 49 mpg for passenger vehicles by 2026.
To meet that goal, automakers must increase the efficiency of their product lines by 8% annually for model years 2024 and 2025, then 10% annually for 2026. The new standards will likely prompt vehicle manufacturers to drop most (or all) of the manual-equipped offerings from their product lines.
While in the past, manual transmissions were more efficient than automatics, that’s no longer the case. Automatics now reign supreme when it comes to efficiency.
Today’s electronically-controlled automatic transmissions provide precision that a human driver couldn’t achieve with a stick shift. What’s more, modern automatics have more gear ratios than manuals for reduced engine speed and improved fuel economy.
Fully autonomous vehicles are still a ways off. However, there are already partially autonomous technologies on the road in the form of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).
There are currently six levels of autonomy (starting at zero) as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). Today’s ADAS features, which are available in even entry-level cars, are rated between a one and a two on the autonomy scale.
A few examples of ADAS features include:
Obviously, it would be almost impossible to implement a manual transmission in any of these example ADAS systems. An automatic transmission is needed to complete the computer-controlled gear changes.
Some researchers believe that human drivers will be outlawed as soon as 2050, leaving only autonomous vehicles on the road. While that theory may or may not be true, there’s no denying the fact that greater levels of autonomy will become available every year.
And here’s the thing—an autonomous vehicle doesn’t have a hand to control a gear shifter or a foot to apply a clutch pedal. But what a self-driving car does have, are the computer and electronics to control an automatic transmission.
Engineers already face a multitude of challenges in their quest to make autonomous vehicles that can navigate public roadways. Adding the complexity of a manual transmission to the mix doesn’t make sense, especially since 96% of Americans currently drive an automatic.
Automakers have been moving away from manual transmissions for a long time. In 2021, only 1% of vehicles produced in the United States came with a manual transmission. Furthermore, only 18% of American drivers know how to drive a stick, making it clear that demand is limited.
For the 2022 model year, just a handful of cars are offered with a manual transmission. Even sports cars, like the Chevrolet C8 Corvette, no longer offer a true manual transmission (the C8 has a dual-clutch automatic instead).
So, if you’re set on rowing your own gears, you’d better pick up one of the few cars that have a manual transmission before it’s too late.
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Yep, nothing like taking the fun out of driving, nothing like shifting gears.
I have 2-vetts ,68 and 04- 4speed and 6 speed. I would NOT trade for any new electric car I don't care how much it cost. Can not beat a corvette with stick shift. I will never go to a drag with electric cars unless I have a CAN opener.
I applaud the electric car maker who finally gave up trying to put multiple gear ratios in the same case as a torque monster electric motor. They wisely placed a different drive gear on each of two motors installed in the vehicle. These work. I am in no hurry to pay for repairs to a CVT much less one driven by a motor with a mountain of torque and a few horses to show for it.
A favorite company of mine offers quality electric conversion kits for about $18k USD. I can afford that, not a $50k USD luxury vehicle that happens to be electric.
The kit will make my second car, a 1964 Bug a clean vehicle for the first time in history. They can even delete all but two forward gears in the manual transmission for simplicity. A retrofitted air cooled vehicle is a hoot to drive. Although recommended, knowledge of driving a stick isn't essential.
I mention the kit because not long ago a manual transmission and electric setup seemed made for each other. It still seems like the only way I will get window cranks that last 25 years. I won't find those in the luxury vehicle even if I had the coin.